For the seventh time in 23 months, it’s Alex Pereira fight week as he’ll take on Magamed Ankalaev UFC 313.
For reference, no other reigning UFC champion has more than five fights in that time. It’ll also mark the fifth straight fight, seventh of his last eight, with UFC gold on the line.
However, this might be his toughest test since moving up to light-heavyweight.
Ankalaev comes into this fight 20-1-1 with a win over Aleksandar Rakić in his last fight. He has 11 wins by knockout and six first round finishes.
With that being said, Periera has been a top-three fighter in the world the past year. He has the best knockout power in the UFC and can end a fight at any second. Since signing with the UFC, he’s had ten fights, winning seven by knockout.
Striking hasn’t been the talk of the fight though.
With Ankalaev being from Russia and having trained in Dagestan, there’s been a lot of discussion on if he should take Pereira to the ground.
However, I think this narrative has been blown out of proportion.
Ankalaev has above average wrestling for his weight class, having the third most takedown attempts out of the top-15 LHWs.
But people tend to forget about Pereira’s ground skills that could come into play in this fight. He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black-belt with 70% takedown defense. “If things don’t go his way, he’ll try to take me down and then I’ll be able to show my game—that’s when I’ll surprise him,” said Pereira
The last time a fighter went into a fight with a gameplan of taking Pereira to the ground was when he took on Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz went three for eight on takedowns with 7:32 of ground control. Pereira won a split decision after out-striking Blachowicz 112 to 82.
I think this fight could look similar.
Ankalaev will try, and probably be successful, to take down Pereira.
That won’t be enough to get the job done.
Even with all that control time, Blachowicz only had two submission attempts to Pereira’s one and then was outworked on the feet.
Once the fight is on the feet, it will be in Periera’s favor, but could still be given a good run for his money. We saw in his fight against Khalil Rountree Jr. that he is still human, and Ankalaev is strong enough on the feet to stand with Pereira.
For an official prediction, I think Pereira continues his incredibly impressive run with a TKO win.
I can’t see this fight going to a decision regardless of who wins.
According to Fanduel, Perieria is a slight favorite at -120 with Ankalaev at -106. The over/under for rounds is currently at -128 to be under 3.5 rounds, which I agree with.
Moving onto the co-main, this should also be a great fight.
Like most UFC fans, I was bummed out when the planned fight of Justin Gaethje vs Dan Hooker was canceled due to Hooker breaking his hand.
Luckily, a rematch of Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev is an amazing replacement.
Their first fight was a 15-minute war in which all 97 strikes by Fiziev were listed as significant strikes.
I can’t see chapter two being any different.
One aspect of this fight that will have to be watched is how Fiziev moves. This is his first fight since Sept. 2023 when he tore his ACL in a fight against Mateusz Gamrot. He needed surgery, but was adamant during the recovery process that he’ll be back better than ever.
Similarly, it’s been some time since we’ve seen Gaethje in the octagon, 11 months to be exact. His last fight was April 13 of last year when he was on the wrong side of one of the most iconic knockouts in UFC history at the hands of Max Holloway. A fight in which Gaethje recently said “I actually fought really well.”
When it comes to this fight, I think it’ll be 15-minutes of trading blows and I don’t think many people would disagree.
Eight of Fizievs’ 12 wins have come by knockout including six first round finishes.
As for Gaethje, 20 of his 26 wins were by knockout, with nine of them coming in the first round.
I expect a lot of fireworks with both fighters having their chins tested early and often.
Fanduel has Fiziev as a -178 favorite with Gaethje at a +138 underdog. This is similar to the first time they fought when Fiziev was -225 and Gaethje at +220.
I expect the underdog to come out victorious once again.
An official prediction is Gaethje by TKO, but I could see the fight going the distance again. I think Gaethje’s cardio will win him this fight. On the contrary, Fiziev, having been out for 18 months, will struggle to keep up with the pace Gaethje likes to, and I expect him to fight on Saturday.
Early prelims start at 6:30 p.m., with the main card at 10 p.m on ESPN+. Overall, it should be a great card with amazing main and co-main events.
