After just six fights in under two years, Diego Lopes is set to take on arguably the best featherweight of all time, Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 314.
Both fighters enter this fight on drastically different trajectories.
Volkanovski’s track record speaks for itself, with nine straight title fights including five successful defenses. However, he’s lost three of his last four with his last two being knockouts prompting him to take a 14-month break.
Lopes on the other hand has won 5 straight after losing his UFC debut on 5-days notice. He has back-to-back unanimous-decision wins over Dan Ige and Brian Ortega. His win against Ortega was what propelled him to top contender status after having 42 more significant strikes than Ortega.
This fight is very interesting and could go a multitude of ways.
Amongst featherweights all-time, Volkanovski has the longest average fight time, just under 17 minutes. Lopes on the other hand has the third-shortest average fight time at 6:55.
He also is third in featherweight history with 1.3 knockdowns per 15-minutes. Volkanovski has only been knocked down three times in his 16 UFC fights. Two of those came in his past two fights, leaving questions about the strength of his chin.
Lopes also leads all featherweights with 3.03 submissions per 15-minutes. He faces a challenge though with Volkanovski coming in with the third lowest bottom position percentage amongst featherweights.
My prediction for this fight is a very entertaining, back and forth matchup. Lopes will likely catch Volkanovski a couple times, stunning him, as will Volkanovski to Lopes.
Lopes may even come close to a submission and have some control time, but it won’t be enough.
I predict Volkanovski to reclaim the belt with either a fourth round TKO or a decision win. His experience and fighting IQ will be too much for a younger and less experienced Diego Lopes.
Odds according to Fanduel:
Alexander Volkanovski: -125
Diego Lopes: -102
In the co-main event it’s another rising star taking on a veteran, but this time in the lightweight division.
Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett has taken the UFC by storm, winning his first six fights since being signed.
Michael Chandler is a veteran of the sport who had his first action in the octagon after a two year hiatus in November of last year.
Despite losing by unanimous decision, he outstruck Charles Olivera, even winning a round or two.
He isn’t competing for belts anymore but he can still compete with other ranked fighters and will be a good test for Pimblett.
While this could still be a very good fight, I think it’ll be less fireworks than the main event.
Pimblett will likely look to the success Olivera had on the ground and try to replicate that.
He has 10 wins by submission, including a win over King Green in his last fight via triangle choke.
This is a co-main so it’s a five-round fight, but I can’t see it going the distance.
I think Paddy “The Baddy” stays hot and keeps moving up the ranks with a submission win.
The main card has three other great fights, two with major implications.
Yair Rodriguez vs Patricio Pitbull is an awesome matchup that includes two former champions.
Pitbull has 17 title fights in Bellator, going 13-4 in those fights. At 37 years old, he has made the switch to the UFC and a win over Rodriguez could give him a chance to enter title contention at 145.
Bryce Mitchell is taking on another rising star in the UFC, Jean Silva. Silva is on a 10-fight win streak, including four wins in the UFC, with three of them being by KO. He’s a part of the “fighting nerds” that have taken MMA by storm with their exciting fights and unique personalities.
His opponent, Bryce Mitchell, is on the opposite trajectory despite coming off a win in December. He’s still a young fighter with potential, but with some things he’s said in the media has led to the fans turning on him.
Silva is a heavy favorite for good reason. I can’t see him losing.
This card is unbelievable and should be a classic.
Judges Scorecard parlay:
Volkanovski ML (-125)
Chandler vs Pimblett to NOT go the distance (-550)
Silva by KO/TKO (+120)
+368 ($10 to win $36.80)
